I have created this website as a place to post what I've been learning about peak oil and our current energy crisis. Peak Oil theory states that at some point global oil production will reach a maximum then enter a state of terminal decline. While I haven't made any firm decisions regarding peak oil and related topics, it is increasingly obvious that the end of 'cheap oil' is very near if it hasn't arrived already. The phenomenon of peak oil, if proven accurate, will have serious trickle down effects as transportation costs will increase, which in turn will increase the cost of finished products. Food costs will skyrocket since crude oil is used to produce fertilizer to grow our crops. Sectors of the of the economy that rely on disposable income, especially travel and entertainment, will also suffer. I don't want to come off as being radical or alarmist, but at the same time I think this is worthy of our attention. I encourage you to check out the pages of this site, and the news feed and additional links in the side bar. Let me know what you think!
Wow, April Fool’s Day. So who are the fools anyway?
Politicians, bankers, wall street-ers, or sheeple? No good news recently…
The G20 are meeting in London amidst rioting.
GM is likely going bankrupt with Rick Waggoner being removed as CEO by U.S. gov’t. Chrysler is in bad shape, too…
AiG is still a mess, though many have given back their mulitmillion dollar bonuses.
The Fed is buying Treasurys with money is has created, so the gov’t is loaning itself money. What an (inflationary) racket.
The Social Security outlook has gone from bad to worse.
Unemployment is still advancing.
I guess the brighter side: I’m going to Romania & Block Island this summer. Let’s hope that TSdoesn’tHTF when I’m in Eastern Europe! I don’t wanna live there!
I’ve been reaing about chess lately as a distraction from reality…
Gas prices are still stable around $2, which is good for drivers, but prevents investment in alternative energy and oil exploration projects.
My spending habits haven’t changed much. Still driving around the same amount, still going out to eat at least weekly, now I have a 2-yr. committment to DISH Network…
Congress passed yet another $800 billion partisan stimulus bill this week. Good luck trying to raise that kind of cash, even with T-bills!
Chris Martenson was on WGBY (a PBS station in Springfield, MA), and you can view this abbreviated version of the Crash Course right here:
Now that 2008 is finally history, it’s time to look back at the year in numbers — most of them pretty terrible.
-33.84% The percentage loss in the Dow industrials, worst since 1931, third-worst in history. -38.49% The percentage loss in the S&P 500, worst since 1937. -40.54% The percentage loss for the Nasdaq Composite Index, worst in history. 126 The number of up days on the S&P 500 in 2008. 126 The number of down days on the S&P 500 in 2008. (The difference, of course, is that on the down days, the market lost an average of a kajillion points.) 28 The number of Dow industrials components ending lower on the year. The outliers were Wal-Mart Stores and McDonald’s. 15 The number of Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index members that ended the year in positive territory. This is the worst breadth for the S&P going back to 1980; second-worst was 2002, when 131 stocks, or 26% of the issues, rose on the year. 18 The number of daily 5%+ moves on the S&P 500 in 2008. 17 The number of 5%+ moves on the S&P 500 between 1956 and 2007. 280.80 The daily average point range on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. 421.01 The daily average point range on the Dow Jones Industrial Average between Sept. 1 and Dec. 31. -7.87%. The worst one-day percentage change on the Dow in 2008, which ranks ninth all-time. -87.14% The performance of General Motors in 2008, making it the worst among Dow components. (There are issues here of survivorship bias — American International Group was removed from the 30-stock average during the year, and that stock lost 97.31% in 2008, making it the worst performer among the members of the S&P 500.) 1.78 The percentage-point decline in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which fell to 2.253% by the end of the year. 6 The number of days in 2008 that rank among the Dow’s top 20 up days and top 20 down days in terms of percentage change. (The leader, with 10 appearances, is 1932.) -17.7%.The performance of the S&P’s consumer staples sector — the best performer among the S&P’s 10 industry sectors. 24.03% The gain in the Barclays long-term Treasury Index in 2008. 15.66 The difference, in percentage points, between the lowest spread over Treasurys for the Merrill Lynch High Yield Index for the year, and the highest spread over Treasurys. (At its peak, the index was at 20.68 percentage points over comparable Treasurys.) $61,000 The cost of insuring $10 million in U.S. Treasurys against default for five years. At the beginning of 2008, this cost was $6,000.
Sources: Dow Jones Indexes; Markit; Standard & Poor’s
Posted by David Gaffen at http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/01/02/by-the-numbers-how-2008-shakes-out/
It’s been a month since I’ve posted, and gasoline is at a three year(?) low of abotu $1.59 per gallon. That’s great for those with SUV’s like me (and millions of other Americans!), but it also means that auto companies have less incentive to sell cars with good fuel economy (i.e. small) in the U.S., that oil companies has less incentive to explore for more reserves (crude needs to be @ $75+ to make it feasible), and investment in alternative energy wanes.
Chris Martenson’s Crash Course is available on (free ISO) DVD now, so I’ve been cautiously sharing it with others. I’ve also been volunteering to help setup his YouTube channel http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
The economy has stabilized–kind of–but is doing horrible. The Dow has been bouncing around 8500-9000 for the past month, foreclosures are up, unemployment is up, and people are actually trying to save more and spend less. There is a psychological element to it all as people are tightening up on bad economic news, even if they aren’t personally affected yet. Also, most retailers struggled to break even this year and many bankruptcies and store closures are expected.
I appreciate Kathy’s post over at peakoilblues.com that looks at 2008 in review and how to have a decent 2009: http://www.peakoilblues.com/blog/?p=1065
I plan on computing less, relaxing more, spending more time with the family, and loving deeply. Ask me how I’m doing in a few months!
Nine of us drove our SUVs to the airport and flew in thirsty jet planes to consume food and fun at Disney World. We had a good time, but it amazes me how much money people still have to burn and how we are truly a society of consumers. I would love to see Disney’s energy bill for just one month since everything they do is so energy intensive: lighting, transport, rides, and so on.
It’s good to be back home. Gas is only $1.93/gal., a price I never thought I’d see again, and the Dow is around 8000, which means we’ve lost about 10 years of gains in recent months.
The only drawback of being home is that I’mm back to reading all the bad news–and Black Friday ads!–again!
Now that 2008 is finally history, it’s time to look back at the year in numbers — most of them pretty terrible.
