Peak Oil proponents propose two different scenarios that may occur after we have reached peak oil production. Anytime you jump off of a peak, you can expect to have some type of landing. In this case, we refer to a soft and hard landing. Regardless of which type of landing occurs, there will no doubt be some difficulties as we transition from a society that relies on petroleum as its lifeblood, to one that it totally independent of petroleum.
The preferred type of landing is called a soft landing. For a soft landing to occur, people must be made aware of peak oil so that preparations can be made well — at least twenty years — in advance. That means that the media must get the word out, politicians must begin focusing on solutions, and corporate America (especially car manufacturers) needs to do its part, too. There are over a quarter billion cars on U.S. roads alone, virtually all of which are powered by petroleum derived gasoline and diesel fuel. Add to that all of the buses, airplanes, cars, and motorcycles in the entire world, and it becomes obvious why we need at least twenty years to retool our entire fleet of vehicles to remove petroleum powered cars from use. Further, society as a whole needs to be willing to make lifestyle changes involving an increase in efficiency and a vast decrease in energy consumption if we hope to leave a reasonably stable world for future generations.
For a soft landing to occur, we need to promote living close to work, mass transit, alternative transportation (walking, bicycles, electric cars), renewable energy sources, and car pooling like never before. Speed limits should actually be lowered to improve fuel efficiency. Composting and full scale recycling should be implemented to preserve our remaining resources. Farming should take place close to home so food doesn’t need to be transported for hundreds of miles, and overall consumerism should be reduced. Of course, for a soft landing to occur the general population needs to not only be aware of this situation, but also choose to make serious changes both personally and politically. Unfortunately, most people are content with the status quo and unwilling to downgrade their lifestyle.
Because of time constraints, increased consumption, increased energy use and denial by the general public, many experts believe that we will experience a hard landing. Fuel prices will skyrocket to the point where daily commuting will be cost prohibitive and fuel shortages will occur for those who are still willing and able to pay. The government, corporate America, and oil producing nations will be blamed, but work toward a solution will come decades too late. Food production will decline due to a lack to petroleum-derived fertilizers, and manufacturing will suffer due to a lack of plastics, polyester, and related materials. Products and materials that are transported by tractor-trailers will be scarce. Crime rates will increase and resource wars will be fought in a last ditch effort to secure much desired resources. In the end we will experience a societal regression like never before, returning to a pre-industrial way of life. (Note: I’m not sure that this will happen, nor do I want it to happen, but the possibility does exist.)
Interestingly, Royal Dutch Shell, better known to most as Shell Oil, has been becoming increasingly honest in their publications regarding the problems associated with a decline in oil supplies and productions. In a 2008 document entitled “Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050,” Shell describes two scenarios that are loosely connected to a hard and soft landing. The scenario that is most like a hard landing is called “Scramble” by Shell since countries and individuals will be scrambling to obtain the energy resources they need. The following is a summary of the Scramble scenario:
“In Scramble, a typical three-step pattern begins to emerge: first, nations deal with signs of tightening supply by a flight into coal and heavier hydrocarbons and biofuels; then, when the growth in coal, oil and gas can no longer be maintained, an overall supply crisis occurs; and finally, governments react with draconian measures — such as steep and sudden domestic price rises or severe restrictions on personal mobility with accompanying disruptions in value chains and significant economic dislocations. By 2020, the repetition of this volatile three-step pattern in many areas of the energy economy results in a temporary global economic slowdown.”
The optimistic, soft landing scenario is called “Blueprints” by Shell since it shows what happens when individuals, corporations, and governments work together to form a plan — or a blueprint — to help the transition to a petroleum free society. From Shell’s Energy Scenario document:
“Government mandates for vehicles with significantly reduced and zero emissions, fiscal incentives to support the build-up of mass production, and ever-more wind and solar power all stimulate a surge in electric transport – powered by battery, fuel-cell or hybrid technologies. This growth in the use of electric vehicles allows most nations to enter the plateau of oil production without the shocks that they would otherwise have experienced. In Blueprints, the more efficient end-use of electricity and the resulting slower growth in primary energy demand mean that the former energy poor enjoy an additional boost in their standard of living made possible by the resulting affordable energy prices.”
Even though Shell, a company that makes it’s livelihood from petroleum, has much to lose by confessing that our oil stocks are dwindling, they nonetheless chose to inform the public to begin a dialog that will lead to action before it is too late. I’m not asking you to believe simply because I am informing you. I am asking to seriously consider what I am saying here, what the ramifications are if it is true, and what actions you should take to best prepare for the future.
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